As I look again on 2020, it was undoubtedly one of the vital stunning, unpredictable, and unstable years we’ve confronted in latest reminiscence.
As a reminder, from Feb nineteenth, 2020, to March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 fell 31.93%
For those who held a $5M S&P 500 ETF, that worth went to $3,403,500 within the blink of an eye fixed, a lack of $1,596,500. Not a straightforward factor to abdomen.
But amidst the uncertainty, I’m happy with some key calls and recommendation that proved correct throughout such a turbulent time. So, I’d prefer to take a second to replicate on what we at Monument acquired proper and the way these classes benefited our purchasers and will function steerage for anybody looking for strong wealth administration recommendation in 2025 (or at any time for that matter).
1- Worry and Panic will Sink You: Keep Invested Throughout Market Volatility
When the markets crashed early in 2020 because of the pandemic, worry and panic have been all over the place.
However we urged purchasers to remain the course. In posts like “I Advised You This Was Gonna Occur” and “How To not Freak Out“, I emphasised the significance of sustaining a long-term perspective and resisting the urge to promote in periods of volatility.
Because the markets rebounded sharply later within the yr, those that adopted this recommendation have been rewarded. Staying invested throughout downturns is at all times simpler mentioned than completed, however 2020 was a robust reminder of why it’s so necessary.
2 – Don’t Attempt to “Time” the Market: Take a Lengthy-Time period Perspective
All through 2020, we persistently highlighted the hazards of market timing.
Posts like “It’s Not About Discovering the Backside” and “Right here’s the Actual Value of Timing the Market” careworn that trying to completely time entries and exits typically ends in missed alternatives. The speedy restoration in 2020 was proof of this precept.
Buyers who have been consumed with ready for the “backside” or who hesitated to reenter the market seemingly missed out on substantial positive factors. This expertise solely bolstered our perception {that a} disciplined, long-term strategy is the important thing to monetary success.
3 – Perceive & Keep away from Your Personal Behavioral Traps
Investor psychology performed an enormous function in 2020. The emotional rollercoaster of the pandemic led many to make rash choices. In “Why Present Sentiment Can Harm Your Plan” and “Traits of Quick-Time period Buyers“, I warned towards letting worry and market sentiment drive funding selections.
Those that averted these behavioral traps and caught to their plans have been higher positioned to profit from the eventual restoration. Emotional investing stays one of many greatest challenges for most individuals, and 2020 was a textbook case of why it’s vital to remain disciplined.
4 – Money is King: Financial Stimulus as a Market Driver
Within the submit “Hope From China, Reality About Stimulus, and Why Money Is the Final Hedge“, I mentioned the function of financial stimulus in stabilizing the markets. As governments and central banks worldwide launched unprecedented fiscal and financial interventions, it turned clear how vital these measures have been in fueling the market’s restoration. This perception proved invaluable for these attempting to make sense of the speedy rebound amidst ongoing financial challenges.
5 – Be Ready: Concentrate on Planning + Diversification
2020 additionally bolstered the significance of being ready for uncertainty.
In “Getting ready Your Funding Portfolio for the Presidential Election“, I emphasised the necessity for a well-thought-out plan and a diversified portfolio. I additionally emphasised that an financial growth poised to final for a number of years was seemingly underway, positioning equities as a stronger asset class in comparison with shares and bonds. Since that article was written, the S&P 500 is up 79.6% and the iShares Core US Mixture Bond ETF (AGG) is down 17.23%.
This recommendation was notably related as purchasers confronted each the pandemic and the uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election. Diversification and planning proved to be a powerful basis throughout a yr when a lot felt unpredictable.
6 -Recession and Bear Markets Are Not At all times Linked
One of many extra fascinating insights from 2020 was that bear markets don’t at all times result in extended recessions.
In “Bear Markets Don’t At all times Imply a Recession“, I defined why market declines don’t essentially sign prolonged financial downturns.
This perception was validated because the financial system rebounded a lot sooner than many anticipated, regardless of the severity of the market crash earlier within the yr.
Why This Nonetheless Issues in 2025
Quick ahead to 2025, and whereas the small print have modified, all of the rules stay the identical.
The very best technique continues to be this: keep calm throughout volatility, concentrate on the long run, keep away from emotional decision-making, forecast money wants, and be ready for uncertainty. Your intestine shouldn’t be an excellent barometer.
Right here’s how I do know…
Because the market low on March 23, 2020, the S&P 500 has returned 191%. Now evaluate that to the purpose I made above in #5 stating the S&P 500 was up 79.6% from Oct sixth, 2020. For those who have been “ready for the market to recuperate” or “ready for issues to cool down”, you missed the unfold between a 191% return and a 79.6% return.
Learn that once more as a result of it needs to be a no-nonsense reminder that attempting to time the market is a dropping recreation.
Buyers who panicked and offered in 2020 missed one of many biggest rebounds in market historical past, the S&P 500 is up 195% from that March 23, 2020 low. So once more, have a correct money administration plan the place you pull money from portfolios when markets are up, not down, and keep away from making reactionary strikes based mostly on short-term worry.
The identical classes that labored in 2020 are simply as related at this time—they usually’ll nonetheless maintain true for the subsequent decade. In truth, I feel for my subsequent weblog I’ll revisit the 2022 blogs and write the same set of reflections.
Preserve trying ahead.
