Mural Oncology (MURA) ($~30MM market cap) has became a little bit of a battleground busted biotech within the feedback part of my authentic put up. I at all times recognize suggestions on concepts, on this case it helped me keep away from the autumn in MURA’s inventory worth after their not too long ago printed enterprise replace. The money burn has been considerably greater than anticipated as they wind down their R&D and medical efforts, however included within the press launch had been just a few nuggets price stating making the inventory attention-grabbing at present worth ranges.
First, MURA provides a money estimate for year-end, it is a optimistic change as they did not within the authentic April strategic alternate options announcement:
As of June 30, 2025, the corporate had roughly $77.1 million in money and money equivalents. The corporate estimates that, if it has not consummated a transaction or different strategic various by December 31, 2025, its money and money equivalents as of such date will whole roughly $43 to $48 million.
On the mid-point, that equates to roughly $2.50/share. As well as, most firms will warn that any ahead estimates may are available in decrease than anticipated or sale processes take longer than anticipated, and so forth., however MURA type of did the other:
This money steering is topic to a variety of assumptions and precise money balances might differ materially, significantly if the Firm consummates a transaction or different strategic various previous to December 31, 2025.
“Precise money balances might differ materially” then cite a optimistic kind shock, simply discovered that attention-grabbing to notice. Perhaps one thing is already within the works? Lastly, MURA snuck in language round a liquidation or wind down being a chance which they hadn’t talked about beforehand:
any strategic various it might pursue, together with, however not restricted to, a suggestion for or different acquisition of the corporate, merger, enterprise mixture or different transaction, together with a potential wind- down and liquidation of the corporate
The straightforward again of envelope math is beneath, my guess is somebody like XOMA or Tang (though one adverse right here is neither Tang nor BML are recognized shareholders) are available in and make a suggestion that quantities to a liquidation dressed up as an acquisition (helps with the Irish takeover guidelines, provides administration change of management bonuses, and so forth.) for 90% of the projected year-end money:
There may be some acknowledged hair on this case, it’s a former spin that hasn’t reached the 2 yr protected harbor (would do this in November) and it has additionally let go of over 90% of their staff bringing into query whether or not the IRS would nonetheless think about this an energetic commerce or enterprise. My uneducated take is MURA remains to be within the drug growth enterprise, they have not offered their belongings/enterprise (different biotechs, SYBX involves thoughts, appear very conscious to keep away from being categorised as a money shell and proceed to say their IP in filings regardless of equally stopping all growth efforts), normally there may be some grace interval however I admit it is a threat.
