The one most requested query that I’ve heard since January 20th is:
“How will this new administration have an effect on my inventory, bond and actual property holdings?”
I hold listening to variations of that query from shoppers, advisors, and the media. The overall query displays a priority in regards to the new Trump 2.0 administration’s flurry of actions, particularly DOGE, Elon Musk, layoffs, and different points.
My recommendation is to tune out the noise, flip off the TV, and keep away from the trolling, wild gesticulations, and chaos. As a substitute, focus on what is really taking place.
I admit the final demeanor feels bizarre as a result of there’s been an entire lot extra getting mentioned than achieved; far fewer actions than the pronouncements (or said intentions to carry out actions) all of which can or could not occur.
How most of the 3 million federal civil service employees (not counting navy or postal service staff) are actually going to be laid off? Does the manager department have the authority to cancel spending allotted by Congress? What can Elon Musk do?
I don’t know; I doubt many of the pundits you hear opining all day lengthy on TV know both. The end result of those points won’t be litigated on tv; somewhat, it is going to be litigated within the federal courtroom system, the place it’s speculated to occur.
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It’s troublesome to recollect this when you find yourself overwhelmed by Steve Bannon’s “Flood the Zone ” technique. An ideal instance is the U.S. navy exercise overseas. Is Canada about to develop into the 51st state? Will we retake the Panama Canal by pressure? Will Denmark knuckle beneath and promote us Greenland?
That was final week—it appears like months in the past. I don’t know if any of these territorial ambitions will come to fruition (shade me uncertain). However I do see that the noise of those points has wholly overwhelmed any boots-on-the-ground exercise. My recommendation is that traders (largely) ignore these feedback.
Flood the Zone is superb at exhausting you politically, however don’t let it exhaust your self-discipline as an investor.
One other instance: 47 (the identical man as 45, however a unique administration) introduced immediately that he’s “canceling Manhattan’s congestion pricing.” The MTA yawned on the proclamation. Regardless of all of the sturm und drang, the MTA remains to be accumulating congestion pricing and says it would proceed to take action till it’s ordered by a lawful courtroom to cease.
What about all these Tariffs? Canada and Mexico? (Nothing achieved)
Have there been mass layoffs? (No)
China Tariffs? (Nope)
Has Pentagon spending been reduce but? (No)
Ukraine and Russia? (Nyet)
47 is a savvier government than 45; he’s skilled, has his personal folks in place, appears to have a thought-out plan, and his group is executing that plan. However my focus is on what really will get put into place and never the noise the media dutifully repeats as if it’s Gospel.
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Recall the period of Trump 1.0, particularly the interval between election day and the inauguration. Throughout that interregnum, 45 started tweeting at firm executives, cajoling, threatening, and in any other case inflicting normal mischief. For the primary few weeks, markets punished corporations that obtained 45’s ire. However quickly after, it turned clear this was largely bluster, with little or no actual-world penalties. Market (over)response pale.
After November 5, 2024, the Russell 2000 Index gained on hopes that the said Trump coverage would profit smaller cap corporations. That has largely pale, and RUT is now kind of again to the place it was earlier than November 5th. Even the MAGA ETF (after a post-election pop) is once more lagging the S&P 500 (above since election; beneath, trailing 12 month chart).
To me, the political noise is simply that – a distraction. I recommend you ignore most of what will get mentioned, and concentrate on all of the issues that truly get completed. These are more likely to embrace massive tax cuts (TCJA gest prolonged 5+ years) and a a lot M&A-friendlier FTC…
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Extra importantly, take note of the broader context of the place we’re immediately. Again to again years of larger than 20% in equities strongly recommend we decrease expectations for the next 12-24 months.
Context issues rather more than noise.
Beforehand:
Why Politics and Investing Don’t Combine (February 13, 2011)
How A lot is the Rule of Regulation Value to Markets? (August 2, 2021)
Archive: Politics & Investing
See additionally:
Governments are folks, my good friend (Optimistic Callie, February 18, 2025)
Jobless Claims for the DC Space (Each day Spark, February 18, 2025)
